OPINION: As court verdict looms, Le Pen now seems willing to bring down French government

A series of parliamentary showdowns are looming in France in which Marine Le Pen controls key votes – could her increasing threats to bring down the government have anything to do with her embezzlement trial and the threat of being barred from politics, asks John Lichfield.

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Is she bluffing? Maybe. Can she still be bought off? Maybe.
Does it matter? Yes, it matters a great deal.
Imagine an early 2025 in which a triumphant, blustering Donald Trump re-enters the White House and an exultant Vladimir Putin pushes his luck in Ukraine when there is no proper government in France OR Germany.
The rejection of the 2025 budget would not necessarily force a government shut-down but it could create turmoil for France, and the whole of the Eurozone, on financial markets. The dumping of Barnier after only three months would provoke another lengthy government crisis in France which might not be solved until new parliamentary elections are possible in June.
Barnier is likely to resort next week to his special powers under Article 49.3 of the Constitution. His minority government needs to use this “joker” to impose the 2025 Social Security budget (pensions, health etc) and the final accounts for 2024. As a result, there will be two censure votes, probably on Wednesday and Friday.

It once seemed that Le Pen would order her parliamentary troops to stand aside in these votes to preserve her negotiating position until the final yes-no decision on the 2025 budget proper which is expected around December 20th. People in her party, echoed by President Emmanuel Macron, are now warning of a “surprise” next week.
On the TF1 8pm news on Tuesday night, Barnier tried to appeal directly to the French people to bring pressure on their politicians – including Le Pen – to grow up. He reversed the Far Right’s usual bleating about “the elites” to accuse Le Pen of being part of a “Paris microcosm” interested only in “political manoeuvres”.
“These people would do better to devote their energy to France and the French rather than plotting their own future,” the Prime Minister said.
The criticism was not just aimed at Le Pen. All parties, including the Macronist Centre and the ex-Gaullists within Barnier’s fragile coalition, have been playing self-pleasing, political games with a supposedly vital budget.

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After an orgy of self-recrimination about France’s persistent, large deficits in September, the political classes have reverted to their traditional state of mind. The deficit is always the fault of “les autres”. No one is willing to consider sacrifices.
The Assembly rejected the main budget altogether this month after it was amended out of all recognition by the Left to pile new taxes on business and the well-off. In theory, this was good news for Barnier.
His original budget, reducing next year’s deficit to 5 percent of GDP after 6.1 percent this year, has now gone straight to the Senate where he has a centre and centre-right majority.
The final Senate version will be changed to accommodate billions of euros of concessions made by Barnier to local government, pensioners and business. The 5 percent deficit target for next year already looks fanciful.
Marine Le Pen was the first of the parliamentary leaders summoned to see Barnier in a series of crisis-avoiding talks on Monday. She told him that she would censure the government if the budget was not further changed.

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There must be no taxes or spending which reduced the purchasing power of ordinary people, she said. Even the much-softened freeze on state pensions until July was unacceptable. So was the “increase” in electricity taxes, which restores cuts made to reduce the impact of energy inflation in 2022-3.
How, then, can the necessary budget savings be found, Madame Le Pen? Why by “reducing immigration” and illegally withholding payments to the EU, of course.
In sum, Le Pen has abandoned her previous stateswomanlike pose. She is back to her more traditional mode of mendacious and populist campaigning.
The changed approach coincides with bad news in recent days from her trial for embezzling million in European Parliament funds.
As I wrote here before, Le Pen knew that she was likely to be found guilty. There is overwhelming evidence that she employed fake parliamentary assistants in Brussels and Strasbourg who were, in fact, working for her party in France.

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She hoped that the court would not dare to impose a prison sentence or an electoral ban on such an important political figure as Marine Le Pen. She has now learned that an anti-corruption law passed in 2016 makes an electoral ban almost certain when the court gives its judgement in January or February.
The prosecution has asked for two years in jail (which won’t happen) and five years’ suspension from politics (which may). Crucially, the prosecution says that the ban should apply during appeals.
Le Pen denies that the prospect of taking early retirement from politics (at 56) has changed her mind about the budget. The change in her tune, and her tone, is blatant all the same.
Why pretend to be a stateswoman if she has no future in electoral politics? If “the system” plans to bring her down, she may as well bring down the “system”.
Barnier, as one of the few surviving original Gaullists, is very reluctant to plead or bargain with the Far Right. He is doing so all the same. Two long-term, Lepennist demands – proportional representation in parliamentary elections and a tougher new law on immigration – have been dangled before the Far Right as enticements to spare the government next week.
Le Pen may yet back down. Voting with the Left to bring down the government is not an easy choice for her. She could oblige President Emmanuel Macron to appoint a government of the Centre-left, which would anger some of her supporters and potential supporters.
The problem for Barnier, and France, is that Le Pen may no longer be thinking strategically or thinking much at all.
I believed until now that she had no interest in causing a political and financial crisis in December when there can be no new elections before June. I am no longer so sure.

#John Lichfield
#Opinion and Analysis
#Politics
#Marine Le Pen

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Michel Barnier is an honourable, decent man but that may not be enough to save his job. The Prime Minister faces a moment of truth next week in a world of egotists, tricksters and liars.
The chaotic negotiations on the 2025 budget are approaching a series of parliamentary showdowns – two next week and one just before Christmas. The government could fall as soon as next Wednesday.
All eyes are on Marine Le Pen. The Far Right leader has changed her tune since she learned that there was a strong possibility, not just “a possibility”, that she may be banned from the 2027 presidential election. The judges in her corruption trial will rule early in the new year.
Le Pen controls the 140 swing votes in the National Assembly which will decide whether the deficit-cutting 2025 budget and the Barnier coalition survive. She once appeared to favour compromise and stability over chaos. She now says that she may join the Left alliance that she hates in a censure vote that would leave France without a government or a budget for Christmas.
Is she bluffing? Maybe. Can she still be bought off? Maybe.
Does it matter? Yes, it matters a great deal.
Imagine an early 2025 in which a triumphant, blustering Donald Trump re-enters the White House and an exultant Vladimir Putin pushes his luck in Ukraine when there is no proper government in France OR Germany.
The rejection of the 2025 budget would not necessarily force a government shut-down but it could create turmoil for France, and the whole of the Eurozone, on financial markets. The dumping of Barnier after only three months would provoke another lengthy government crisis in France which might not be solved until new parliamentary elections are possible in June.
Barnier is likely to resort next week to his special powers under Article 49.3 of the Constitution. His minority government needs to use this “joker” to impose the 2025 Social Security budget (pensions, health etc) and the final accounts for 2024. As a result, there will be two censure votes, probably on Wednesday and Friday.
It once seemed that Le Pen would order her parliamentary troops to stand aside in these votes to preserve her negotiating position until the final yes-no decision on the 2025 budget proper which is expected around December 20th. People in her party, echoed by President Emmanuel Macron, are now warning of a “surprise” next week.
On the TF1 8pm news on Tuesday night, Barnier tried to appeal directly to the French people to bring pressure on their politicians – including Le Pen – to grow up. He reversed the Far Right’s usual bleating about “the elites” to accuse Le Pen of being part of a “Paris microcosm” interested only in “political manoeuvres”.
“These people would do better to devote their energy to France and the French rather than plotting their own future,” the Prime Minister said.
The criticism was not just aimed at Le Pen. All parties, including the Macronist Centre and the ex-Gaullists within Barnier’s fragile coalition, have been playing self-pleasing, political games with a supposedly vital budget.
After an orgy of self-recrimination about France’s persistent, large deficits in September, the political classes have reverted to their traditional state of mind. The deficit is always the fault of “les autres”. No one is willing to consider sacrifices.
The Assembly rejected the main budget altogether this month after it was amended out of all recognition by the Left to pile new taxes on business and the well-off. In theory, this was good news for Barnier.
His original budget, reducing next year’s deficit to 5 percent of GDP after 6.1 percent this year, has now gone straight to the Senate where he has a centre and centre-right majority.
The final Senate version will be changed to accommodate billions of euros of concessions made by Barnier to local government, pensioners and business. The 5 percent deficit target for next year already looks fanciful.
Marine Le Pen was the first of the parliamentary leaders summoned to see Barnier in a series of crisis-avoiding talks on Monday. She told him that she would censure the government if the budget was not further changed.
There must be no taxes or spending which reduced the purchasing power of ordinary people, she said. Even the much-softened freeze on state pensions until July was unacceptable. So was the “increase” in electricity taxes, which restores cuts made to reduce the impact of energy inflation in 2022-3.
How, then, can the necessary budget savings be found, Madame Le Pen? Why by “reducing immigration” and illegally withholding payments to the EU, of course.
In sum, Le Pen has abandoned her previous stateswomanlike pose. She is back to her more traditional mode of mendacious and populist campaigning.
The changed approach coincides with bad news in recent days from her trial for embezzling million in European Parliament funds.
As I wrote here before, Le Pen knew that she was likely to be found guilty. There is overwhelming evidence that she employed fake parliamentary assistants in Brussels and Strasbourg who were, in fact, working for her party in France.
She hoped that the court would not dare to impose a prison sentence or an electoral ban on such an important political figure as Marine Le Pen. She has now learned that an anti-corruption law passed in 2016 makes an electoral ban almost certain when the court gives its judgement in January or February.
The prosecution has asked for two years in jail (which won’t happen) and five years’ suspension from politics (which may). Crucially, the prosecution says that the ban should apply during appeals.
Le Pen denies that the prospect of taking early retirement from politics (at 56) has changed her mind about the budget. The change in her tune, and her tone, is blatant all the same.
Why pretend to be a stateswoman if she has no future in electoral politics? If “the system” plans to bring her down, she may as well bring down the “system”.
Barnier, as one of the few surviving original Gaullists, is very reluctant to plead or bargain with the Far Right. He is doing so all the same. Two long-term, Lepennist demands – proportional representation in parliamentary elections and a tougher new law on immigration – have been dangled before the Far Right as enticements to spare the government next week.
Le Pen may yet back down. Voting with the Left to bring down the government is not an easy choice for her. She could oblige President Emmanuel Macron to appoint a government of the Centre-left, which would anger some of her supporters and potential supporters.
The problem for Barnier, and France, is that Le Pen may no longer be thinking strategically or thinking much at all.
I believed until now that she had no interest in causing a political and financial crisis in December when there can be no new elections before June. I am no longer so sure.

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